Archive - Buy the Rumor; Sell the News

North American AI Compute Infra Report for the Week Ended Sept 14th, 2026

A compendium of developments for tracking the North American AI infra buildout

21 hrs ago • Dave Friedman

What Needs to Happen for Compute Derivatives to Exist

Procurement decisions need to be complemented with risk management decisions

Sep 9 • Dave Friedman

What Makes GPU Revenue Bankable

Quality of contracted customer revenue matters more than contracted cutomer revenue

Sep 7 • Dave Friedman

Astra and the Demand for GPU Hours

What happens to demand for GPU hours when frontier models become more efficient?

Sep 6 • Dave Friedman

August 2026

The Market is Pricing Payment Certainty, Not GPUs

Stress in GPU-backed debt, and where a compute forward curve actually matters

Aug 10 • Dave Friedman

July 2026

A GPU-Hour Isn't a Commodity If You Need Four of Them

GPU rental markets look liquid one machine at a time. Ask for a usable cluster, and much of that market disappears

Jul 23 • Dave Friedman

Closed Source AI Models are not Trojan Horses

Satya Nadella is right that enterprises should protect their learning loops. But the strongest risk is dependency, not covert training on protected…

Jul 20 • Dave Friedman

The Compute Market has Multiple Views on Future Compute Prices

When future compute prices are determined by private offtake agreements, the result is that every compute seller and buyer has a different view about…

Jul 18 • Dave Friedman

Compute Futures Won't Make Compute Fungible

The market will work if it can make compute's differences visible, measurable, and tradable

Jul 17 • Dave Friedman

CoreWeave Piles on More Debt

DDTL 5.5 is the newest financing structure

Jul 16 • Dave Friedman

AI 2040 Mistakes Technical Legibility for Political Feasibility

Please see relevant disclosures here.

Jul 10 • Dave Friedman

Reading Hugging Face’s Download Distribution as a Signal About Compute Markets

Understanding how demand for open-weights models affects demand for compute

Jul 9 • Dave Friedman

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