Buy the Rumor; Sell the News

Home
Notes
Chat
Work with me
Archive
Leaderboard
About

February 2026

FluidStack and the GPU Financing Problem
Complex deal structures tell us a lot about what's missing in the market for GPU financing
 • Dave Friedman
When AI Speed Meets Institutional Lethargy
The United States Supreme Court took 10 months to tell us what everyone already knew about tariffs. That delay is a feature of every institution you…
 • Dave Friedman
No One Knows What They’re Buying When They Rent GPUs
A new research paper undermines a foundational assumption of the GPU rental market
 • Dave Friedman
The SaaSpocalypse Is a Credit Event, Not a Tech Story
AI is destroying many SaaS business models and the pain is acute in the credit markets
 • Dave Friedman
Have the AI Labs Actually Been Right?
I want my country of geniuses in a data center!
 • Dave Friedman
No One Knows What the Future of AI Holds
Tyler Cowen and Dario Amodei offer very different views of the near-term future of AI in recent interviews
 • Dave Friedman
AI Takeoff Speeds Rule Everything Around Compute Derivatives
How the pace of AI progress determines whether compute becomes the most important asset class of the century, or just another commodity
 • Dave Friedman
Two Ways to Finance the AI Boom
CoreWeave and Nebius have taken radically different paths to GPU scale. Recursive self-improvement may punish one far more than the other
 • Dave Friedman
The Credit Markets Haven’t Read the AI Labs’ Roadmaps
There are now more than $20 billion in outstanding loans collateralized by NVIDIA GPUs.
 • Dave Friedman
Neoclouds Hold More Than $20 Billion in GPU-Backed Debt. What Happens if They Can't Repay Their Loans?
When AI starts improving itself, GPUs obsolesce more quickly, and nobody has a hedge
 • Dave Friedman
© 2026 Dave Friedman · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture