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Why the GPU boom won't burst, yet

Algorithmic efficiency, edge computing, and capital constraints are reshaping AI's compute curve, not collapsing it

Dave Friedman's avatar
Dave Friedman
Oct 30, 2025
∙ Paid

TL;DR

The near future of AI compute demand is non-linear and non-obvious1. Algorithmic progress makes inference dramatically cheaper, and edge computing shifts workloads away from data centers. Yet total GPU demand will likely remain high over the next five years. The system is entering a phase of reflexive saturation: efficiency frees up capacity, which …

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