Well reasoned. I believe relatively few VCs think AGI is imminent. Those VCs touting AGI as imminent own stock in LLM shops like OpenAI and Anthropic. Those founder-CEOs are currently in fundraising mode and prone to hype.
To sort of sidestep your main philosophical thrust, if an investor thinks that the odds of an all-out thermonuclear war have *increased*, it would not make sense to begin investing more for the short term. You'd want to make longer term investments. If there's a nuclear holocaust in six months who cares how your investments do? But if you invest for the long term and there isn't a nuclear war, you're in a better position. Go long. I believe there was some evidence of this behavior in the real world during the Cold War.
Of course in the case of AI startups, it's not unreasonable to hope your company gets bought by NVIDIA or Amazon in the two or three year long slow takeoff period. Then you have that capital to spend, which is fun. Or it may offer some advantage during the coming period of rapid change and growth.
Yeah, you're basically resolving the paradox I've identified by saying that their investments are a hedge. If AGI doesn't happen soon, then they hold possibly valuable equity in companies. And that's fair enough. But a true believer doesn't hedge. So one is left with the conclusion that VCs don't *really* believe in the imminence of AGI.
Well reasoned. I believe relatively few VCs think AGI is imminent. Those VCs touting AGI as imminent own stock in LLM shops like OpenAI and Anthropic. Those founder-CEOs are currently in fundraising mode and prone to hype.
To sort of sidestep your main philosophical thrust, if an investor thinks that the odds of an all-out thermonuclear war have *increased*, it would not make sense to begin investing more for the short term. You'd want to make longer term investments. If there's a nuclear holocaust in six months who cares how your investments do? But if you invest for the long term and there isn't a nuclear war, you're in a better position. Go long. I believe there was some evidence of this behavior in the real world during the Cold War.
Of course in the case of AI startups, it's not unreasonable to hope your company gets bought by NVIDIA or Amazon in the two or three year long slow takeoff period. Then you have that capital to spend, which is fun. Or it may offer some advantage during the coming period of rapid change and growth.
Yeah, you're basically resolving the paradox I've identified by saying that their investments are a hedge. If AGI doesn't happen soon, then they hold possibly valuable equity in companies. And that's fair enough. But a true believer doesn't hedge. So one is left with the conclusion that VCs don't *really* believe in the imminence of AGI.