Things I'm thinking about

Much conventional wisdom is being challenged these days

I just published a note on Substack, at least part of which pertains to AI, so I thought that I would expand upon what I say in the note.

Brittleness of Institutions

The perceived stability of long-standing institutions like universities and political unions like the EU is often overestimated. Beneath the surface, these entities lack the adaptability required to navigate rapid changes in technology, social norms, and economic conditions. This brittleness arises due to their large, complex bureaucratic structures, which hinder rapid decision-making and adaptation. This makes them vulnerable in times of rapid change.

Persistent High Interest Rates

Factors which suggest that interest rates will remain high include inflationary pressures, fiscal policies, and changes in global economic dynamics. High interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, which dampens investment in risk assets like real estate, tech startups, and venture capital. This leads to a contraction in asset valuations which have been inflated by years of low interest rates.

Limitations of Expert Knowledge

Experts oten work within frameworks that may not account for novel situations or the complexity of real-world interactions beyond their field of study. This leads to a gap between expert recommendations and effective real-world applications, especially in rapidly evolving fields or in crisis situations where interdisciplinary approaches are more effective.

Underrating Girard

Rene Girard’s ideas on mimetic desire and its impact on human behavior and culture remain underappreciated. His theories provide a framework for understanding conflict, desire, and social dynamics that can be particularly insightful in today’s highly interconnected and competitive world.

Impact of AI on Highly Credentialed Workers

As AI technology advances, the tasks traditionally performed by professionals such as lawyers, accountants, and doctors will be automated. This suggests a future where the premium on human expertise in these areas will diminish, especially for routine and procedural tasks. Professionals in these fields will face significant challenges unless they adapt by focusing on more complex, creative, or interpersonal aspects of their work that are less susceptible to automation.