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Iain Methe's avatar

I agree with your logic but I feel like something must be missing. How have we scaled models many orders of magnitude in the past few years and are just now hitting bottlenecks? Is it just that the existing systems “fit” in the existing/planned infra capacity and we have used up all those extra resources? Did we conveniently have enough runway to get to where we are now but no further?

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David W Baldwin's avatar

1) IMHO, AGI=Machine becomes Itself...

2) Kurzweil's Accelerated Returns based on simple premise of the time length to achieve the doubling/halving will be slightly less during next doubling/halving probably has a counterpoint where, say, when I figured back in about '09-'10 that legit AGI would happen about 2028, had no idea we'd have gone thru the absolute breakdown in wisdom of those revered...

a) How do you factor decelerators that would work against accelerators and what does that do to end run result and/or timeline?

b) Going back to (1) above, whomever would need to dumb down definition of AGI to "hide it". Once the machine is itself, is asking for info/opine and formulates conclusion understanding next 'frame' relates to achieving power or overall good... they can't just simply hide it.

1) IOW, the simple caricature of the little machine with eyeballs looking sideways at wall where human hand is about to unplug the power chord speaks volumes.

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