AI & job displacement: navigating the future of work
It's not clear that AI will take all the jobs
I am working on a longer piece about AI & what I have come to call the Great Displacement Theory. This post outlines my thinking. The bottom line is that powerful AI is not, by itself, sufficient to replace all human jobs. The world is complicated.
Many fear that AI will lead to widespread job displacement. We might term this fear the “Great Displacement Theory”. Those who embrace this theory envision a future where machines replace human roles on a massive scale. However, the world is not as simple as this theory assumes.
To gauge AI’s potential in any given job, we must dissect the job into specific tasks, such as data analysis, customer service, or physical labor, and assess which of these tasks can be automated. This requires a detailed theory about how AI can perform each job. At the very least this should challenge the notion that AI can seamlessly take over all human roles.
Tacit knowledge, which is the unspoken insights gained from personal experience, is a signficant barrier for AI. This type of knowledge, which is essential for many jobs, is difficult for AI to learn and replicate. Tacit knowledge is not included in AI’s training data.
Additionally, there are technical and social challenges to integrating AI in the workplace:
Technical integration: Tailoring AI to specific tasks requires substantial customization.
Data dependency: AI depends on a significant amount of data being readily available. This remains a challenge in many sectors.
Workforce adaptation: Transition to AI-driven processes requires retraining staff and redefining job roles. Many industries have inflexible labor forces, either due to regulatory burdens or unioninzed workforces or both. The people who staff these jobs may not be as amenable to the intrusion of AI as others would think.
Cost Implications: The initial investment in AI technology poses a significant barrier, particularly for small businesses and industries with tight margins.
Finally, the labor market’s adaptability suggests that AI will more likely transform jobs than eliminate them outright. This includes:
Augmentation over replacement: AI is set to augment human capabilities, not replace them, by taking over repetitive tasks and enabling humans to focus on areas requiring creativity and strategic thinking.
Creation of new job categories: Just as the internet did, AI will likely create entirely new job roles centered around AI system design, ethics, and regulation.
Skill redistribution: The demand for skills will evolve, with an increased need for AI literacy, data science, and emotional intelligence.
The conversation around AI and employment should shift from job losses to the opportunities for human-AI collaboration. This includes using AI to elevate human work, enhance productivity, and develop new skills. Investing in education and skills development is crucial for adapting to the evolving labor market.