AGI is not imminent
Experts and insiders suggest aggressively compressed timelines for AGI. I don't think this is reasonable.
The more I think about the timeline for artificial general intelligence (AGI), the more skeptical I am that it is coming any time soon. Significantly influencing my thoughts here is this recent essay. I note three things:
Incentives of employees of leading AI companies: the people employed at OpenAI, and similar companies…